For the first time since Franklin Roosevelt, the next President will face the prospect of neither peace nor prosperity — and there seems a con-sensus that, as much as Obama wants to play in the world, the financial cri-sis will demand most of his time and political capital. From that assumption flows another. For the sake of conti-nuity and the absence of drama, it might not be a bad idea for Obama — if elected — to stick with the cur-rent national-security players in the battle against Islamic extremism.

自小羅斯福總統以來，史上首次，美國下任總統將面對既不和平也不繁榮的前景，而且大家似乎都有共識，儘管歐巴馬很想在世局上扮演要角，金融危機勢必耗掉他大半時間和政治資本。從這個假設類推。為了政策延續性及降低戲劇性，如果歐巴馬當選，說不定留住目前對抗伊斯蘭教激進主義的國家安全人員不失為一個很好的構想。

Obama said on Oct. 18 he was "happy" that General David Petraeus was at Central Command, supervising the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan. Last June, Obama told me that he would want "people like" Secretary of De-fense Robert Gates in his Cabinet. Petraeus is studying the options in Afghanistan, with the goal of produc-ing a detailed action plan for the next President by the end of December. It is likely the general will recommend the resumption of troop withdrawals from Iraq on something resembling the Obama timetable.

歐巴馬10月18日表示，他很「樂見」〔伊拉克和阿富汗美軍指揮官〕裴卓斯將軍出任中央司令部司令。去年6 月，歐巴馬又告訴我，他希望像國防部長蓋茲「這種人才」留在他的內閣。裴卓斯正在研究阿富汗的選擇方案，目標是要在12月1日之前為下任總統提出詳細行動計畫。裴卓斯將軍可能會建議類似歐巴馬所提恢復自伊拉克撤軍的時間表。

Indeed, Iraq has slipped down the list of national-security priorities as it has stabilized. It is also likely that at least two brigades scheduled to deploy to Iraq in 2009 will be sent to Afghanistan instead. Already, Obama has indicated that he approves the general direction in which Petraeus is heading. Unlike President Bush, Obama strongly supports na-tion-building in both Afghanistan and Pakistan; and, like Petraeus, he favors negotiations with some of the pro-Taliban tribes (at least those who are not al-Qaeda). Unlike McCain, Obama will not be reluctant to con-tinue the current cross-border strikes, via Predator drone, against selected terrorist targets in Pakistan.

的確，伊拉克由於情勢穩定，在國家安全優先要務的重要性上已往下掉。另外，至少兩個原本準備在2009年派駐伊拉克的旅也可能改調阿富汗。歐巴馬已經表示，他支持裴卓斯調度的方向。有別於布希總統，歐巴馬強烈支持在阿富汗和巴基斯坦從事國家建設；同時，一如裴卓斯，他贊成和支持神學士的部族協商（至少那些非凱達的部族）。歐巴馬也不像馬侃，他會毫不猶豫地持續進行目前的越界攻擊，利用掠奪者無人飛機對巴基斯坦選擇性的恐怖目標下手。

But it won't be the top priority. As Obama told me in our interview, a government-propelled transition to an alternative-energy economy will be his most important initiative. Translated into Washington terms, this means a massive infrastructure and stimulus package — in the neighbor-hood of $300 billion, according to the current speculation. There is a back-to-the-future quality to this: it's what used to be derided as big-spending liberalism. The Beltway consensus is that the economic crisis makes it necessary now. But public cynicism about government requires that the next President builds ac-countability into his spending pro-grams. That's why the Infrastructure Bank that Obama proposed during the campaign may be crucial: it would create a bipartisan board of five gov-ernors who would judge and approve all major projects.

但這還不是最高優先。誠如歐巴馬在訪談中告訴我的，由政府推動轉型為另類能源經濟將是他最重要的行動方案。用華府官方語言詮釋，這意味推動大規模的基礎和經濟振興方案，目前猜測，金額約在3千億美元左右。這帶點回到未來的特質：過去這曾被譏諷為主張巨額支出的自由主義。華府圈內人士達成共識：經濟危機使其如今益形迫切。但民眾對政府冷嘲熱諷，使下任總統有必要對其支出計畫建立負責任的態度說清楚講明白。這也是歐巴馬在這次選戰中所倡議的基礎建設銀行格外顯得重要的原因：這將由五位州長共同創立一個兩黨董事會，由他們負責評斷審核，通過所有重大計畫。

In normal times, getting an Infras-tructure Bank through Congress would be impossible. "It is a direct threat to their way of life," says Nor-man Ornstein of the American En-terprise Institute. "It changes the dy-namic of how you deal with earmarks," by taking the decision-making, and to some extent the credit, away from politicians. "I know one huge ally Obama would have on this," Ornstein adds with a laugh. "John McCain."

在正常時候，不可能叫國會通過基礎建設銀行方案。誠如美國企業研究所的諾曼．奧恩斯坦所說：「這直接危及他們的生活方式。」從政客手中奪走決策權及某種程度的功勞，「將改變國會撥款動能。」奧恩斯坦笑著加上一句：「我知道在這個案子上歐巴馬有個重量級盟友：馬侃。」

This could be an early test for Pres-ident Obama (it would be an impos-sible task for President McCain, given the Democratic enmity should he win). Will Obama be able to convince his party's leaders that the economic situ-ation is so dire, and the public's opin-ion of Congress so low, that big new public-works projects will need the validation of an independent board Will he be willing to spend his politi-cal capital on this relatively obscure notion When Bill Clinton arrived in Washington, he found that his toughest challenge was herding the donkeys in his own party. The na-tion's capital awaits the new President, wondering not just who gets what, but also how tough — and skilled — the new guy will really be.

這可能是歐巴馬總統最早面臨的考驗（對馬侃總統來說，如果他贏，想到民主黨的敵意，就知道這根本是不可能的任務）。歐巴馬是否可以說服黨內元老領導人，經濟情勢已危在旦夕，國會民意支持度已跌到谷底，新推動的大型公共建設計畫將需要獨立的董事會批准？他是否願意投入政治資本到這個相對較不為人知的構想？當柯林頓到華府時，他發現他最困難的挑戰在把黨內那群騾子趕在一起。美國首府正引頸企盼新總統，不只在揣測誰可以拿到什麼，也想摸摸這位新人到底有多強硬和技巧。

Is an Obama presidency a giant step towards liberal socialism and military weakness In this time of severe crisis do we want experience or inexperi-ence

歐巴馬當總統是否會朝自由社會主義和軍力式微跨出一大步？當此面對嚴峻危機的時刻，我們希望找個有經驗還是沒有經驗的菜鳥？

In the last presidential debate, Joe the Plumber took the place of Gen. David Petraeus as John McCain's fa-vorite "friend." The previously ob-scure Joe was mentioned 21 times in the debate, and he and folks like him are the people McCain says he's going to fight for during the rest of the campaign. The McCain campaign is hoping the issues of taxes and fighting for the little guy can give McCain what the debate did not. He threw some heavy punches, but few landed, and he didn't follow up effectively. Though it was McCain's best debate performance, it wasn't enough to make the case that Obama is danger-ously inexperienced and untested.

在最後一場總統辯論中，水電工喬取代裴卓斯將軍，成為馬侃最愛的「朋友」。原本沒沒無聞的水電工喬在辯論中總共被提到21次，他和像他一樣的升斗小民，正是馬侃說他在選戰最後要極力爭取的對象。馬侃希望稅負問題及為小市民而戰可以給他辯論所未辦到的。他揮出幾記重拳，但只有少之又少命中目標，他又未趁勝追擊。雖然這是馬侃表現最精采的一場辯論，但不足以證明歐巴馬沒經驗又未經考驗已經到危險的程度。

（取材自 Joe Klein專欄）