In 1970, in the midst of the longest bear market since World War II, President Richard Nixon declared: "Frankly, if I had any money, I'd be buying stocks right now." The mar-ket soared.

美國陷入二次世界大戰以來最長的空頭市場，尼克森總統當時聲稱：「坦白說，如果我手上有錢，我現在就去買股票。」股市立刻應聲大漲。

Now, I've been asking myself, just for the heck of it, what would happen if President Bush tried his own jaw-boning of the market and said: "Frankly, if I had any money, I'd be buying stocks right now."

今天，我不斷自問，只是鬧著玩的，如果布希總統也想小試身手，鼓吹股市，也跟著說：「坦白說，如果我手上有錢，我現在就進場買股票。」不知下場如何。

My conclusion is: Mr. President, please, please do not say that! I reckon the market could tank in ways that would make this week's one-day 777 point plunge look paltry.

我的結論是：總統先生，拜託，求求你千萬別開金口說那句話呀！我估算股市可能瞬間崩盤，使本周一天之內跌掉777點，看來有如小巫見大巫。

I'm not about to write a paean to Nixon. I watched him quit in a bar in Bolinas, Calif.; I can still hear the cheer. But even his tortured, sleazy nature betrayed some essential seri-ousness about the fate of the United States. By contrast, the Bush crowd has gambled the future of this country with abandon.

我無意行文歌頌尼克森。我在加州波林納斯一家酒吧眼看著他辭職下台，至今彷彿還可以聽到歡聲雷動。但即使是他本性嚴酷好折磨人，又齷齪下流，無意中仍可見他有多嚴肅看待美國的命運。相形之下，布希團隊只會把這個國家的未來恣意妄為地豪賭。

And Nixon did resign as impeach-ment loomed. Whatever happened to the notion that someone — a cabinet member, a Wall Street C.E.O., the inventor of credit-default swaps — might actually fall on his or her sword Shame has become a quaint chivalric notion, like honor, a thing of another American time.

而且在即將面臨彈劾之際，尼克森辭職了。但我們這個政府有那個內閣閣員，哪位華爾街總裁，那個信用違約交換的始作俑者，有人曾想過要掛冠求去？羞惡之心已變成一種老掉牙的俠義觀念，一如榮譽，淪為美國另一個時代的產物。

A closer look at the Bush gamble is merited because the first person to reprice risk on the basis it no longer existed was the president. Now, that's leading by example.

此時應當仔細檢視布希的豪賭，因為第一個以不存在的風險為基礎重新界定風險的就是總統本人。這下，他在統御領導上是以身作則。

The gamble involved going to war in Iraq at an estimated cost to date of about $700 billion (does that figure sound familiar), while opting not to raise taxes but to lower them. It in-volved going into that war, and an-other in Afghanistan, while asking not for shared sacrifice but a great collec-tive maxing-out in the service of: shopping.

這場豪賭涉及出兵伊拉克，這場戰爭估計花掉相當於今天大約7千億美元（這個數字聽來很眼熟吧），但同時又不增稅而是減稅。這場賭博不只涉及這場戰爭，還有另一場阿富汗戰爭，但又不呼籲全民共同犧牲，而是鼓吹集體盡量揮霍，花錢血拚。

At the same time, Bush, who often seemed to need directions to the Treasury, opted to allow an opaque derivatives market to grow into the trillions without supervision, regula-tion or information. The market knew best. Turns out that what the market knew best was how to turn capitalism into a pyramid scheme for trading worthless paper.

在此同時，布希雖然平常似乎常常需要人在財政上指點迷津，這回卻選擇讓不透明的衍生性金融商品市場，在乏人監督，缺乏規範或資訊下，膨脹成數兆美元。市場一葉知秋，市場最清楚如何把資本主義藉著交易一文不值的廢紙變成老鼠會。

Market capitalism is a sophisticated thing that calls for transparency, ethics and rules. Bush and his crowd gam-bled that some "new paradigm" meant these things were passe.

市場資本主義是一門複雜精密的學問，需要透明化、倫理和規範。布希人馬賭的是某些「新的典範」意指這些都已經過時了。

They're not. We have to be careful now. Already the contagion of bank failures has spread to Europe. People are asking of the United States: what became of this country

實則它們並未過時。我們現在要如履薄冰。銀行倒閉的傳染病已經擴散到歐洲。大家都在質疑美國：到底這個國家怎麼了？

The Chinese have been ready to treat U.S. Treasuries as a rock-hard store of value and loan us the dollars they accumulate at a very low interest rate. But what if they start to doubt the U.S. government will repay its debt

中國人已經準備把美國國庫券當成堅硬如石的有價商品，並把他們在利率極低時囤積的美元借給我們，但如果他們開始懷疑美國是否有能力償債呢？

"We are getting closer to a tip-ping-point," said Benn Steil, an e-conomist. "People are asking: can we really trust the dollar as a store of value"

「我們已接近引爆轉捩點，」經濟學家斯泰爾說。「大家都在問：我們是否能相信美元能夠保值？」

The Bretton Woods system of monetary management collapsed in 1971, under Nixon. Since then the dollar's been the primary reserve cur-rency. Now, we're reaching another point where a rethink of the founda-tions for a global economy is needed.

布列敦森林體系的貨幣管理1971年在尼克森總統任內垮了。此後美元就成為主要的準備通貨。如今，我們已經到另一個點，必須重新思考國際經濟的根基了。

Global trade and capital flows are essential to prosperity. But it's illogical to have a global system with no global reserve as insurance. Perhaps the tril-lions of Gulf and Chinese surpluses could be used to finance that. Or perhaps it's time for a return to the gold standard...

全球貿易和資本流通攸關經濟繁榮。但一套全球化制度卻沒有全球準備當保險是不合理的。也許數以兆計的波灣和中國預算盈餘，可以提供資金，又或許是該回金本位的時候了珥珥

I know one thing: this is no time for further gambling. John McCain rolled the dice on Sarah Palin. I'm grateful to Bob Rice of Tangent Capital for pointing out that the ac-tuarial risk, based on mortality tables, of Palin becoming president if the Republican ticket wins the election is about 1 in 6 or 7.That's the same odds as your birthday falling on a Wednes-day. Is America ready for that

有一點是確定的：此時不宜再進行任何賭博了。馬侃把命運投注在裴林身上。我很感激加拿大寶成投資有限公司的萊斯指出，根據生命表或死亡率評比表，真正的風險是如果共和黨勝選而裴林當上總統，死亡率是六、七分之一。那跟你的生日落在星期三的比率相去不遠。美國已經做好準備了嗎？

The lesson of the last eight years is this: when power is a passport to gamble, people can end up seriously broke or seriously dead.

過去八年的慘痛教訓是：當權力成為賭博的通行證，人民就會嚴重破產或走投無路。

And people's houses across America really did go up in smoke.And fear stalked the land.

而美國人民的房子真的都化為烏有。恐懼已瀰漫這片土地。

（取材自紐約時報 Roger Cohen專欄）