What a difference five years — and one war — make!
五年時間，外加一場戰爭，造成多大的不同！
In a 2003 article in Newsweek, written on the eve of the invasion of Iraq, Fareed Zakaria — a columnist for the magazine and the editor of its international edition — wrote: "It is now clear that the current era can re-ally have only one name, the unipolar world — an age with only one global power. America’s position today is unprecedented." He went on to de-clare that "American dominance is not simply military. The U.S. economy is as large as the next three — Japan, Germany and Britain — put together," adding that "it is more dynamic e-conomically, more youthful demo-graphically and more flexible cultur-ally than any other part of the world." What worries people around the world above all else, he wrote, "is liv-ing in a world shaped and dominated by one country — the United States."
「新聞周刊」專欄作家兼國際版總編輯札卡利亞，在美國出兵伊拉克前夕，曾於2003年在該刊撰寫一篇文章，文中寫道：「現在很清楚，當前這個時代，只有一個名稱最貼切，單極世界：這個時代全球只有一個超強。美國今天的地位空前。」他接著宣稱，「美國獨霸不只在軍力方面。美國經濟力和接下來三大強日本、德國及英國加在一起一樣強大，」他接著說，「美國比世上任何其他角落經濟更有活力；人口統計學上更年輕化；文化上更有彈性。」他並寫道，世界各地人民最擔心的，莫過於「生活在一個由一個國家，也就是美國形塑和壟斷的世界。」
In his new book, "The Post-Amer-ican World," Mr. Zakaria writes that America remains a politico-military superpower, but "in every other di-mension — industrial, financial, edu-cational, social, cultural — the distri-bution of power is shifting, moving away from American dominance." With the rise of China, India and other emerging markets, with eco-nomic growth sweeping much of the planet, and the world becoming in-creasingly decentralized and inter-connected, he contends, "we are moving into a post-American world, one defined and directed from many places and by many people."
在他的新著《後美國獨霸的世界》，札卡利亞寫道，美國仍是政治和軍事超強，但「在其他任何層面，包括工業、金融、教育、社會和文化方面，權力分配正在變動轉移，脫離美國獨霸。」隨著中國、印度和其他新興市場崛起，隨著經濟成長橫掃地球大部分地區，加上世界變得愈來愈分權和連動，他主張，「我們正朝後美國世界邁進，這個世界是由很多地方的很多人民來界定和主導。」
For that matter, Mr. Zakaria argues that we are now in the midst of the third great tectonic power shift to oc-cur over the last 500 years: the first was the rise of the West, which pro-duced "modernity as we know it: sci-ence and technology, commerce and capitalism, the agricultural and indus-trial revolutions"; the second was the rise of the United States in the 20th century; and the third is what he calls "the rise of the rest," with China and India "becoming bigger players in their neighborhoods and beyond," Russia becoming more aggressive, and Europe acting with "immense strength and purpose" on matters of trade and economics.
就此而言，札卡利亞力陳，我們現在正經歷過去五百年來第三次權力結構大位移：第一次是西方的崛起，那次催生了「我們所知的現代化：科學和技術，商業和資本主義，農業和工業革命」；第二次是美國在20世紀崛起；第三次就是他所稱「世界其他地方的崛起」，尤以中國和印度「成為鄰近地區甚至更遠的地方更大的玩家，」俄羅斯變得愈來愈有企圖心和犯意，歐洲在貿易經濟事物上也採取「強有力和針對性」的動作。
The irony of the "rise of the rest," Mr. Zakaria notes, is that it is largely a result of American ideas and actions: "For 60 years, American politicians and diplomats have traveled around the world pushing countries to open their markets, free up their politics, and embrace trade and technology. We have urged peoples in distant lands to take up the challenge of competing in the global economy, freeing up their currencies, and de-veloping new industries. We coun-seled them to be unafraid of change and learn the secrets of our success. And it worked: the natives have got-ten good at capitalism."
札卡利亞指出，「其餘世界興起」最反諷的是，這多半拜美國的理念和行動之賜：「60年來，美國政治人物和外交家走遍全世界，去推促那些國家開放市場，倡言政治自由，擁抱貿易和科技。我們鼓勵遙遠土地的人民勇敢接受全球化經濟競爭的挑戰，讓匯率自由浮動，並發展新工業。我們勸他們不要怕變革，同時學習我們成功的訣竅。結果果然奏效：各地方的人民很擅於利用資本主義。」
But at the same time, he goes on, America is "becoming suspicious of the very things we have long cele-brated — free markets, trade, immi-gration and technological change": witness Democratic candidates' dissing of Nafta and Republican calls for tighter immigration control.
但在此同時，他接著說，美國「竟開始懷疑起我們長期讚美珍惜的東西，像自由市場、貿易、移民和科技變革」：看看民主黨候選人竟然輕蔑批判北美自由貿易協定，共和黨則呼籲嚴加管控移民。
As for the United States' role in a world that is rapidly shifting from u-nipolarity into a far messier and more dynamic system, Zakaria suggests that it should become a kind of "global broker," forging close relationships with other major countries, while exchanging the peremptory, directive-issuing role of a superpower for "consultation, cooper-ation, and even compromise" — in short, repudiating the sort of cowboy unilateralism favored by the current Bush administration.
在這個正快速由單極世界變動為一個更混亂、更有動能和活力的體系之際，札卡利亞建議，美國應該扮演某種「全球掮客」的角色，和其他主要國家打造更緊實的關係，同時放棄超強專橫獨斷、發號司令的角色，以換取「諮商、合作，甚至妥協」。簡言之，揚棄當前布希政府偏愛的那種牛仔片面主義。
The central strategic challenge for American diplomacy in the years to come, Zakaria says, concerns China: how to deter its aggression and ex-pansionism, while at the same time accommodating its legitimate growth. He suggests that in a world in which "the United States is seen as an over-bearing hegemon," China might well seek to position itself as "the alterna-tive to a hectoring and arrogant America," gradually expanding its e-conomic ties and enlarging its sphere of influence.
札卡利亞直陳，未來數年，美國外交核心戰略挑戰主要在中國：如何嚇阻其侵略野心和擴張主義，同時包容正當合法的茁壯成長。他建議，當這個世界「美國被視為專橫傲慢的霸權」之際，中國大可自我定位為「作威作福、傲慢自大的美國的替代選項」，逐步擴張經濟關係，並加強其影響力。
"How will America," he asks, "cope with such a scenario — a kind of cold war but this time with a vibrant mar-ket society, with the world's largest population, a nation that is not show-casing a hopeless model of state so-cialism or squandering its power in pointless military interventions This is a new challenge for the United States, one it has not tackled before, and for which it is largely unprepared." Zakaria's provocative and often shrewd take opens a big picture win-dow on the closing of the first Amer-ican century and the advent of a new world in which "the rest rise, and the West wanes."
「美國要如何，」他質疑，「應付這種局面：某種冷戰，但這回是和一個生機勃勃的市場社會，有著世上最多的人口，不展示沒有希望的社會主義國家模式，或在毫無意義的軍事干預上虛擲浪費軍力，這麼一個國家，美國過去沒有交手或交涉過，因此也多半還沒準備好因應。」札卡利亞充滿爭議但往往相當敏銳的企圖心，打開一扇窗，大場景中可以看到第一個美國世紀的結束及一個新世界的到來，在這個世界中「其他角落崛起，西方沒落。」