Every day it's looking more like a recession in the U.S. The December economic numbers (released in Jan-uary) have been mostly bad: unem-ployment up, to 5%; retail sales down 0.4%; industrial production flat. The housing market, where all the trouble started, is still in the tank. Banks are reporting big new losses and layoffs. Stock prices are plummeting. Presi-dential contenders are starting to focus on the economy on the campaign trail. It's ugly out there. So let's just say it is in fact recession time for the world's biggest economy. What does that mean, exactly

日子一天天過去，美國愈來愈像步入經濟衰退。今年一月發布的去年十二月經濟數字大半很差：失業率飆增達5%；零售數字小跌0.4%；工業生產洩了氣。引爆所有景氣問題的房市仍毫無起色。銀行財報傳出新的大量虧損和裁員。股市重挫。總統參選人在競選路上開始把矛頭對準經濟。局面實在難看。就讓我們假設美國這個世界最大的經濟體的確開始經濟衰退，那到底代表什麼？

To be pedantic about it, that means a "significant decline in economic ac-tivity spread across the economy, lasting more than a few months." That's the semiofficial definition of a recession, courtesy of the National Bureau of Economic Research, a pri-vate think tank that since 1929 has determined the start and end dates of U.S. downturns. A clearer but clunkier standard is two straight quarters of declining gross domestic product. Or there's Harry Truman's classic definition: "It's a recession when your neighbor loses his job; it's a depression when you lose yours."

從學術制式觀點來看，經濟衰退意指「整個經濟體所有經濟活動大量減少，而且不只持續幾個月。」這是由國家經濟研究局對經濟衰退所提出的半官方定義，國家經濟研究局是個私人智庫，自1929年以來，美國經濟衰退開始和結束的日子都由該局決定。一個比較明確但笨拙的標準則是國內生產總額連續兩季下跌。或者照杜魯門總統的經典定義：「當你的鄰居失業時代表經濟衰退；當你自己失業時就是經濟蕭條或經濟不景氣。」

What we're talking about is an e-conomy-wide mood swing. Busi-nesses in lots of industries shed jobs. Consumers tighten their belts. Banks curtail lending. And then, usually within 12 months, things bottom out and start heading upward again. It's a temporary, cyclical phe-nomenon--not to be confused with long-term trends like the rise of China and India, the growth in in-come inequality and the decline of the TV sitcom.

但我們所談的是經濟上的情緒擺盪：很多行業的公司行號裁員；消費者勒緊褲帶；銀行限縮放貸。然後，通常在12個月後，景氣開始觸底反彈，並開始再向上攀升。這是一種短暫循環的現象；萬萬不能和中國及印度崛起、收入失衡加大及電視情境喜劇式微等長期趨勢混為一談。

From 1945 to '82, there were nine recessions in the U.S. That's about one every four years. Since then, the downturns have become rarer and shallower. This would be the first since 2001, and before that, there hadn't been one since 1991. The move from manufacturing toward a less volatile services-dominated e-conomy is one explanation. A more competent Federal Reserve is another. The trade-off has been that postre-cession recoveries have been more muted than those of yore, while prerecession angst has, if anything, grown.

1945到1982年，美國總共發生九次經濟衰退，大約每四年一次。此後經濟衰退變得較少也較不嚴重。這次是2001年以來首次，在此之前， 1991年後就未發生任何經濟衰退。原因之一是經濟從製造業導向，轉為服務業導向，因此較少波動；另一個原因是聯邦準備理事會效率提高。但相對的，經濟衰退過後經濟復甦比過去安靜；至於經濟衰退前的痛苦，如果有什麼區別的話，就是比過去增加。

The very shallowness of the last re-cession is part of what's causing worry now. In 2001 most businesses cut back sharply on spending. Thanks to the superlow interest rates set by the Fed, though, households plowed on, and for the first time ever, consumer spending kept rising during a reces-sion. It continued rising afterward, much faster than incomes, with Americans paying for the difference by taking on more and more debt. That debt spiral is now unraveling, and the ensuing credit crunch could crimp spending for years.

正因為上次經濟衰退點到為止，現在才特別令人憂心。2001年，大部分企業大幅削減開支。同時，由於聯準會不斷降息，將利率壓到超低，使一般家庭得以苦撐前進；而且有史以來第一次，消費者支出在經濟衰退期間仍不斷成長，而且後來繼續成長，比收入增加快得多，但美國人為了支付其間的差額，背負的債務愈來愈高。債務急劇上揚，如今經濟開始解體，隨之而來的信用緊縮，將在未來很多年抑制支出。

Still, people need to eat, and since World War II, outright declines in consumer spending in the U.S. have always been modest and brief. That's partly because the government has become so acutely responsive to signs of distress. The Fed is already on the case, with three interest-rate cuts since September and more likely on Jan. 31. President Bush and Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke also embraced 145 billion stimulus pack-age to help avert a recession. None of this will have much impact, though, on long-run big issues like U.S. competitiveness, the state of the mid-dle class, etc. For example, if the world economy is able to shrug off a U.S. downturn, it would be a sign that America's global role has been permanently downgraded. But it won't be the doing of the recession, which is, remember, just a passing phenomenon.

但老百姓還是得吃飯，而且自二次大戰來，美國消費者支出全面下跌跌幅一向較小也較短暫，主要因為政府對任何民間疾苦的跡象都速謀對策。聯準會已經對症下藥，自九月以來已降息三次，1月31日極可能再降低利率（譯著：聯準會1月22日一口氣降息三碼）。美國總統布希和聯準會主席柏南克也提出1450億美元的經濟振興方案，希望有助於避免經濟衰退。但這種種方案，對長期性的重大議題像美國競爭力及中產階級的處境等等恐怕收效甚微。例如，如果世界經濟可以甩開美國的經濟衰退，這將是美國在全球所扮演的角色已經永遠降級的跡象，但罪不在經濟衰退，別忘了，經濟衰退只是一時的現象。

Keep that in mind when listening to those presidential candidates talk economics. By the time one of them takes office a year from now, this year's slump will probably be history. It's the other stuff that he or she might actually be able to do something about.

在聽總統候選人侃侃而談經濟政策時，別忘了這點。當他們當中某一位一年後就任美國新總統時，今年的不景氣可能已走入歷史，他或她可能真正要致力改善的是其他問題。（取材自時代雜誌）