Record-high oil prices have dra-matically shifted the balance of global power. At nearly $100 a barrel, oil is more than a crucial energy source, it's a strategic commodity of central im-portance. The $40 per barrel rise in crude prices since last October raises the daily imported oil bills of the U-nited States and Europe by $300 mil-lion each, while Middle East exporters collect an additional $500 million daily. These are sums with huge fi-nancial and political implications that are beginning to reverberate.

油價屢創新高，已劇幅改變全球權力均勢。油價每桶飆漲到將近100美元，使石油不再只是重要能源，而是極端重要的戰略物資。自10月以來，每桶遽漲40美元的原油價格，使美國和歐洲每天進口的石油帳單各大增3億美元；至於中東原油出口國則每天多賺5億美元。這些數字具有重大的金融和政治意涵，並已開始產生長遠的效應。

The windfalls have some important upsides for oil-producing nations and the world at large. Saudi Arabia's oil revenues have surged from $60 billion in 2000 to an estimated $152 billion in 2007. Its budget has moved from deficits to a large surplus. Russia, ef-fectively bankrupt in 1998, has used its vast oil and gas revenues to elimi-nate most foreign debt and build $434 billion in reserves. Both countries are diversifying beyond energy. A host of other nations, including many small African and Caspian Sea countries, are establishing sovereign-wealth funds to better manage their billions, in-jecting much-needed capital into markets in the midst of a credit crunch.

這筆天上掉下來的意外財富，對產油國和全世界都起某種重要的正面作用。沙烏地阿拉伯石油收入由公元2000年的600億美元暴增到2007年的1520億美元，沙國預算也因而轉虧為盈，由赤字變成出現大量盈餘。1998年實際上已經破產的俄羅斯，也利用其龐大的石油和天然氣收入，消除大半外債，並建立4340億美元的外匯存底。沙俄兩國多元化經營早已延伸到能源之外。還有很多其也國家，包括不少非洲小國及裡海國家也建立起主權財富基金，以更完善管理其數以十億美元計的油元，並在信用緊縮中，挹注需求孔急的資本到市場中。

Yet even as oil has greased the wheels of global capitalism, it has hindered democracy. Governments with large oil receipts need less con-sent from the governed to stay in power. They can reward their friends and buy off their opposition, or pay to have it crushed. They discourage free markets and favor state enterprises. In countries like Nigeria and Azerbaijan, the result is repressive and corrupt political institutions and bloated bu-reaucracies sustained by oil money.

但當石油為全球資本主義巨輪加上潤滑油之際，它也同時阻礙民主的發展。仗恃豐厚的石油收入，各產油國政府掌權較不需經被統治者同意。他們可以回報友黨，收買反對黨，或乾脆花錢滅了野黨。他們不鼓勵自由市場，而支持國有企業。在奈及利亞和亞塞拜然等國，結果導致高壓統治、腐敗的政府機構及由油元支撐的膨脹的官僚制度。

Certain producers, notably Russia, are asserting their influence through energy politics rather than military might, using their resource wealth to strong-arm neighbors and build new empires. All the producing countries now feel more confident and less de-pendent on the traditional powers. Roles are suddenly reversed. It is the energy importers who are now the supplicants. When President Hu Jin-tao of China left Washington in spring 2006, his destination was Nigeria. Likewise, the Japanese prime minister, Shinzo Abe, flew to Saudi Arabia after his recent U.S. visit.

某些產油國，尤其是俄羅斯，透過能源策而非軍力來發揮其影響力，他們利用天然資源財富，以強制手段對付鄰國並建立新的帝國。所有產油國現在都覺得更有自信，也較不依賴傳統的強權。角色忽然逆轉。現在輪到能源進口國有求於人。當中共國家主席胡錦濤2006年春天離開華府後，他下一站是到奈及利亞訪問。同樣的，（當時的）日本首相安倍晉三最近訪美後轉飛沙國訪問。

These Chinese and Japanese leaders understand that global oil supplies are a looming challenge. The world cur-rently consumes about 83 million barrels a day, up from 71 million a decade ago, and will need ever more oil in the future.

中日兩國領袖了解，全球石油供應赫然浮現為下一大挑戰。目前全球每天約消耗8300萬桶原油，10年前則為每天7100萬桶，未來需求將更加殷切。

National oil companies now con-trol nearly 80 percent of worldwide reserves, leaving major Western multinationals with full access to only 6 percent. One downside of today's record prices is that ineffective state firms can satisfy the revenue demands of their political masters without in-vesting to sustain production levels.

國家石油公司現在掌控全球儲油近八成，使西方各大跨國企業的全面通路只剩6%。今天油價創新高一大負作用是毫無效率的國企雖未投資維持生產水平，卻能滿足其政治領袖對石油收入的要求。

Some have claimed that the world is running out of oil for geological rea-sons. It is more accurate to say that, given existing technology and political structures, it is in danger of running short of oil production capacity. Be-cause many national oil companies are not investing to offset natural produc-tion declines, demand could outstrip supply. Without major energy-con-servation efforts (not least in the U-nited States), the impact will be enor-mous, with sharp price increases lead-ing to a major economic contraction and dislocation. Governments would maneuver to secure scarce oil supplies, with potentially devastating geopoliti-cal results.

有人聲稱，世界石油短缺源於地質因素。其實更正確的說，盱衡目前的科技和政治結構，石油產能有短缺之虞。由於很多國家石油公司並未投資以彌補自然產量下跌，石油可能供不應求。加上缺乏節約能源計畫（尤其是美國），衝擊極大，油價飆高將導致經濟嚴重緊縮及混亂。各國政府將無所不用其極以掌控稀少的原油供應，並可能造成地緣政治學上慘痛的後果。

There is no question that the world has entered a less stable era. New ac-tors, flush with money and ambition, are playing bigger if not always better roles. Energy security—defined as re-liable supplies at reasonable cost ob-tained in an environmentally sustain-able manner—is no longer assured. The old powers, notably the United States, must approach this new world with increased investment in alterna-tive technologies, more creative part-nerships with producing nations, heightened diplomatic skills and major efforts toward energy efficiency. If not, our security, energy and otherwise, will almost certainly be threatened.

世界無疑已步入一個較不穩定的紀元。拜油元之賜新崛起的要角，荷包滿滿，野心勃勃，正扮演更大但也許不見得更好的角色。能源安全不再有保障，所謂能源安全意指在環境永續成長下，以合理價格取得可靠的能源供應。老強權，尤其是美國，在和這個新世界接觸時，要以替代科技提高投資，和產油國建立更有創意的夥伴關係，提高外交手腕及對能源效益投入更大心力。否則，我們的安全、能源及其他方面，幾 乎必將受到威脅。（摘譯自新聞周刊Robin West專欄）