It is a sign of the boom times in asia these days that Taiwan—which has a steady 4 percent economic-growth rate—is now worried that the world is passing it by. What would be strong numbers in ordinary times look weak in the current context. Taiwan's stock market has failed to match the Asian average for seven years. The island has been thrown into an existential crisis as a result.

台灣經濟一直維持穩定的4%經濟成長率，算是亞洲當前出現經濟榮景的跡象，如今卻擔心，與世界擦身而過。這個平時稱得上強勁的數字，在目前的情況下表現疲弱。台灣股市7年來都低於亞洲平均值，寶島看來出現了存在危機。

Things were different a decade ago, when both Taiwan's economy and equities managed to avoid the turmoil of the Asian financial crisis. What's changed

十年前，情勢迥異，當時台灣的經濟和股市設法避免了亞洲金融危機。到底什麼改變了？

For one thing, the country has run into the law of diminishing returns. Taiwan's per capita GDP is now close to $20,000. Economic growth slows at the higher stages of development; the same process has occurred in South Korea and Japan. Most low-end manufacturing has migrated to China and Vietnam. And like Japan, Taiwan faces a demographic problem, with a slowing birthrate and little immigration.

第一，台灣陷入報酬遞減率中。台灣人均國內生產毛額現在將近20,000美元。發展層次較高時，經濟成長減緩，南韓和日本也經歷同樣的過程。多數下游製造業則已外移到中國大陸和越南。一如日本，台灣也面臨人口結構問題，出生率低，沒有什麼移民進來。

Some of these factors are endemic to advanced economies. So should Taiwan accept relatively low growth as its fate While the country won't be able to replicate the "miracle economy" pace of 8 percent growth it had in the 1970s and '80s; policymakers in Taipei can still aspire for higher than 4 percent by pushing the economy into higher value added sectors.

這些因素普遍存在於高度發展的經濟體中。那麼，台灣應該認命，接受相對較低的成長率嗎？台灣不可能再重現1970和1980年代「經濟奇蹟」創下的8%成長率。台灣決策人士仍可藉推動附加價值高的經濟，希望締造超過4%的經濟成長率。

Still, many foreign portfolio investors find it hard to comprehend the reasons for Taiwan's slowdown and have thus poured more money into its stock market than into any other emerging market since the current global bull run began in March 2003. Investors are chasing the island's stocks in the hope that its economy will accelerate once more. Others think the market's slowly deflating equity valuations are inexpensive compared with their historical values. After all, Taiwan's market traded at a price-to-earnings ratio of 100 in 1989, when the country was one of the world's fastest-growing economies and strict capital controls kept money trapped at home. It now trades at a P/E ratio of 15, which is slightly above average for emerging markets.

但很多外國投資組合投資人發現，很難理解台灣經濟成長減緩的原因，因而把很多錢倒入股市，而不是2003年3月開始的這波全球多頭市場冒出頭的任何其他新興市場。投資人追逐島上的股市，希望其經濟能再次加速成長。其他人認為，市場因緩步通貨緊縮，股價和其歷史高價相比並不貴。畢竟，台灣股市1989年曾以本益比100交易，當時台灣是世上成長最快的經濟體之一，嚴格的資本控制也使錢留台灣。如今本益比只有15，只比新興市場平均值略高。

Now that some capital restrictions have been lifted, and growth has slowed, domestic investors have taken an opposite approach; they are moving their money to more attractively valued emerging markets from Brazil to India. Total outflows from local investors have averaged a staggering $3 billion a month over the past couple of years. The accelerating pace of outflows has so worried Taiwan's central bank that it has been increasing interest rates this year to prevent the currency from depreciating. It must be the only emerging-market central bank currently worried about a weak exchange rate.

既然一些資本限制已經取消，成長也已趨緩，國內投資人採取反向操作，他們把錢轉移到從巴西到印度等股價更有吸引力的新興市場。過去幾年來，本地投資人外流的資金總額，過去幾年來，每月平均創下驚人的30億美元。資金外流步調加快，使台灣中央銀行十分憂心，因此今年已提高利率，防止台幣貶值。台灣恐怕也是新興市場中，唯一目前仍在擔心匯率疲弱的央行。

The unbalanced external accounts are a sign that Taiwan's problems owe to more than just the natural slowdown that comes with increased wealth. The lack of local confidence in the country's long-term prospects is rooted in the realization that while a 4 percent economic-growth rate may be respectable for an advanced economy in ordinary times, it's not when global growth is greater than at any time in history. While exports are reasonably robust, domestic consumption remains moribund—a sign of the country's pervasive anxiety about the future.

台灣問題不只肇因於財富增加使經濟自然減緩，外帳失衡只是跡象之一。本土對台灣長程展望缺乏信心，源於了解4%的經濟成長率，也許平常對高度成長經濟體是相當不錯的數字，當全球成長比史上任何時候都高時則不然。出口也許合理的強勁，國內消費仍死氣沈沈，是台灣普遍憂心未來的跡象。

Politics is further dampening hopes, with elected officials trading blows in Parliament rather than fixing the economy. The two main national parties, the DPP and the KMT, have been at loggerheads over how to manage relations with China.

政治進一步潑冷水，民意代表在立法院拳腳相向，而非導正經濟。國內兩大政黨民進黨和國民黨對如何處理和中共的關係一直相持不下。

Taiwan's policy of having the region's highest tax rates and an inefficient goods-distribution system has inflated the country's cost structure and accelerated the outward flow of investments, resulting in low job growth and virtually stagnant wages. As Hong Kong and Singapore have shown, the key to keeping employment humming at higher stages of development is to fill the vacuum created in the manufacturing sector by boosting the services sector. But in Taiwan, financial services remain hamstrung, thanks to the government's penchant for interfering with banks.

台灣堅持實施區域內最高稅率的政策及沒有效率的貨品分銷制度，使台灣的成本結構攀高，同時加速投資外移，導致工作成長率低及薪水幾乎停滯不動。如同香港和新加坡顯示的，在經濟高度發展階段，提高就業率，關鍵在提高服務業，以填補製造業所留下的真空。但在台灣，由於政府動輒干預銀行，金融服務業一直束手縛腳。

As was the case in the run-up to the 2004 election, hopes have risen in recent weeks that after the next polls in early 2008, whoever wins will focus on reviving Taiwan's competitiveness. Top priorities should be liberalizing the financial sector and strengthening ties with China.

一如2004年選舉起跑時，最近幾周大家都寄望2008年初下次總統大選後，不管誰勝出，都會把重點放在恢復台灣的競爭力上，最高優先應該是開放台灣的金融部門及強化兩岸關係。

Given its wealth, Taiwan may never match the growth rate of poorer, larger neighbors like China or India. It will be similarly difficult for the Taiwanese stock market to outperform its emerging-market peers. Continued policy paralysis and slow progress on the reform front, however, raise the risk of Taiwan's becoming a permanent regional also-ran. That would justify the country's confidence crisis—and once again dash foreign investors' hopes of another boom.

以台灣目前的財富，經濟可能永遠比不上較大但較窮的鄰國，如中共或印度。台灣股市表現也同樣可能很難超越新興市場同儕。政策持續癱瘓，改革進步遲緩，使台灣有永遠淪為區域輸家之虞。難怪台灣會出現信心危機，同時再次使外國投資人對另一次榮景的期待破滅。.（原載「新聞周刊」Ruchir Sharma 專欄）


《詞解》
Fading 光芒漸失，褪色
boom times 榮景
existential 存在
equities 股市
law of diminishing returns 報酬遞減率
GDP 國內生產毛額
low-end 下游
migrated 外移
demographic 人口結構，人口統計
endemic 普遍存在
higher value added 附加價值高
portfolio 投資組合
global bull 全球多頭市場
emerging market 新興市場
deflating 通貨緊縮
price-to-earnings ratio (P/E ratio) 本益比
outflows 外流的資金
staggering 驚人的
depreciating 貶值
moribund 死氣沈沈
pervasive 普遍
dampening hopes 潑冷水
trading blows 拳腳相向
at loggerheads 相持不下
stagnant 停滯不動
hamstrung 束手縛腳
competitiveness 競爭力
also-ran 輸家