The global slowdown stemming in part from the deepening U.S. financial crisis is hitting the world's richest na-tions the hardest even as emerging nations, some with once-fragile e-conomies, are proving relatively re-silient.

全球經濟成長減緩，部分源於美國金融危機加深，已重創世界最富有的國家，但有些新興國家，其中有些一度經濟岌岌可危，卻證明相對較有韌性。

Consider, for instance, Britain. A severe housing slump and credit crunch sparked a 63 percent drop in new home mortgages in May com-pared with May 2007. Mirroring losses in the United States, the average home price in Britain fell to $344,704 in June, down 6.3 percent compared with June 2007, according to the Nationwide Building Society. The stock market in London slipped into bear market territory, joining New York's.

以英國為例，房市重跌，信貸緊縮，和去年5月相比，新屋貸款下跌63%。全英房屋抵押貸款協會指出，對照美國的虧損，英國平均房價6月跌到344,704美元，和去年6月相比也跌了6.3%。倫敦股市繼紐約之後步入熊市。

"It affects everybody, and you need not be a home owner, or have credit or be a consumer," said Martin Slaney, head of derivatives at GFT Global Markets in London.

倫敦GFT環球市場衍生性金融商品主管史蘭利說：「人人都受到波及，你不見得要有房屋或有貸款或是消費者。」

Contrast that with oil-fat Russia -- a red-hot emerging market. As in many commodity-driven economies in the developing world, soaring en-ergy revenue has largely insulated Russia, the world's second-largest oil exporter, from the turbulence in global markets. Its gross domestic product is expected to grow 8 percent this year, and consumer spending continues to boom, with a 13 percent increase so far this year. "We are overloaded with money, crazy amounts of money from the energy market," said Mikhail Bergen, a pro-fessor at Moscow's Higher School of Economics.

和因石油致富的俄羅斯這個紅火的新興市場做個對照。一如發展中國家很多商品驅動的經濟體，能源收入飆漲，已經為俄羅斯這個全球第二大石油輸出國築起防火牆，免於受全球金融市場動盪不安影響。俄國國內生產毛額今年預料將成長8%，消費者支出也續增，今年已經增加了13%。「我們頭寸浮濫，能源市場瘋狂湧入大量熱錢，」莫斯科大學高等經濟學院教授柏根說。

It marks a global economic role re-versal of sorts. When financial crises hit the Asian markets in the 1990s and Argentina in 2001, the aftershocks spread to other emerging economies, plunging several into recession while wealthy countries went relatively un-scathed. Rather than taking its toll largely on residents of developing countries, this economic downturn may cause the greatest damage to those living in the wealthiest countries on earth.

這代表全球某種經濟角色轉換。當亞洲金融市場在1990年代及阿根廷在 2001年出現金融危機時，餘震波及其他新興經濟體，使其中幾個一頭栽入經濟衰退，但富國相對全身而退。但這次經濟衰退並未對發展中國家人民造成重創，反而那些生活在地球上最富有國家的人民蒙受最嚴重的損失。

As global wealth has shifted during the past decade, emerging markets have become not only increasingly stable but they have also been claim-ing a larger portion of the world's riches than ever before. If Californians are rushing to withdraw money from banks there, the situation in Kenya is just the opposite: People are flocking to banks to open accounts. The Nairobi exchange, which lists mostly Kenyan companies and a handful of multinational firms, posted 10 percent gains in the three months ended in June as local and foreign investors flocked to the initial public offering of the cellphone giant Safaricom.

過去十年來，全球財富轉移，新興市場不只體質日益穩健，也比過去吃下更大部分的世界財富。假如加州人正爭相湧入銀行擠兌，肯亞情況正好相反：肯亞人正成群結隊跑到銀行開戶。奈羅比證交所中上市的大半是肯亞當地企業及一小撮跨國公司，在到六月底為止的三個月期間就創下10%收益，主要因為肯亞行動電話巨人Safaricom首次公開上市，吸引當地和外國投資人搶進。

That does not mean the emerging world is buffered completely, partic-ularly if both the United States and Europe slip into recession or if the fi-nancial crisis in the United States claims more and bigger financial in-stitutions. And without question, sec-tors of emerging economies are al-ready being stung.

但那並不意味著新興國家已經完全起緩衝作用，尤其如果美國和歐洲雙雙陷入經濟衰退，或如果美國金融危機危及更多更大的金融機構。毋庸置疑，某些新興經濟產業已經受創。

There is growing fear especially in the fastest-growing Indian technolo-gy markets, which include outsourc-ing, back-office operations and call centers. Those sectors are 70 percent dependent on the United States. Sev-eral Indian technology companies have slowed their hiring because of the U.S. economy's slowdown. In May, industrial output was up 3.3 percent, half the 6 percent increase in May 2007.

成長最快速的印度科技市場，包括委外代工、後勤作業和客服中心，尤其憂心忡忡。這些部門有70%要靠美國。幾家印度科技公司已因美國經濟失速而減緩用人計畫。印度工業產出五月上揚3.3%，僅及2007年5月增加6%的一半。

Exports in China -- the darling of the 21st-century economy -- are also being hammered by slackening demand caused by the global slow-down and rising labor and material costs. The yuan's controlled but steady rise against the dollar has slashed profit margins for many mid-size manufac-turers from 15 to 3 percent. Many factories in Guangdong province have closed their doors, and thousands of workers have lost jobs. Experts predict as many as one-third of export man-ufacturers will close in the next three years. Chinese exports to the United States have been flat this year and will likely experience a rare, overall de-cline by year-end.

21世紀經濟寵兒中國，其出口也因全球經濟成長減緩及人力和原物料價格上漲，使市場需求疲弱而受創。人民幣在控制下穩定對美元升值，使很多中型製造業者的利潤從15%被大破為3%。廣東省很多工廠關門，數千名勞工失業。專家預言，未來三年，有多達三分之一出口商將會倒閉。今年中國對美出口疲軟，到年底可能罕見地整體出現下跌。

Yet in Europe and Japan, the situa-tion is decidedly more gloomy. In Japan, a new government forecast shows slowing economic growth and rising inflation in the coming year. The Bank of Japan lowered its growth forecast to 1.2 percent through March -- the lowest since 2002. It also forecast an increase in core inflation to 1.8 percent, the highest since 1997.

但在歐洲和日本，情況絕對比較悲觀。日本新政府預測顯示，未來這年經濟成長減緩，通貨膨脹上升。日本銀行調降今年一至三月的成長預測為1.2%，創2002年以來新低，同時預測通膨上揚1.8%，則寫下1997年以來新高。

"The credit crisis, runaway inflation, energy crisis, falling confidence, housing prices -- they have created a perfect storm," said Henk Potts, eq-uity strategist at Barclays Wealth.

「信貸危機，通膨失控、能源危機、信心不振、房價慘跌，共同創造了一個完美風暴，」巴克萊財富股市分析師波茲說。

（取材自華盛頓郵報）