How inevitable is the ascendancy of Asia, and how should the West re-spond That is the question that Kishore Mahbubani wrestles with in "The New Asian Hemisphere: The Irresistible Shift of Global Power to the East", a provocative book on the rise of Asia highlighting the need to move beyond old notions of East and West. In the book, he makes an im-passioned plea for big changes in what he sees as the West's arrogant and ig-norant approach to Asia.

亞洲崛起有多不可避免，西方又應如何回應？這就是〔新加坡國立大學李光耀公共政策學院院長〕馬凱碩在他的著作《新亞洲半球：全球權力無可抗拒的轉向東方》所要探索的問題。這本充滿挑釁的書，在談亞洲崛起時強調，必須超越過去東方和西方的思維。在書中，他慷慨激昂地呼籲，西方對亞洲傲慢無知的作法必須大幅改變。

Mahbubani is right to say that the shift in political and economic gravity toward the East is bigger and faster than most Western policymakers grasp. He is on target with his contention that the West too often behaves as if Asian nations want to challenge its market-oriented capitalism, when in fact most want to join that system. It is also hard to disagree with his con-cern that recent U.S. foreign policy has been wildly incompetent.

馬凱碩提到，政經重心轉向東方，遠比大部分西方決策者所掌握的更快、規模更大，信哉斯言也。他指稱西方常表現出，好像亞洲國家要挑戰其市場導向的資本主義，更是一針見血，擊中要害；因為事實上大半亞洲國家只想加入那套體制。另外對他關切最近美國外交政策極端無能，也很難不表同意。

Still, Mahbubani heaps too much scorn on the West without taking A-sia to task for its own missteps. He praises China for its enlightened diplomacy in East Asia, for example, but omits any discussion of its chronic neglect of intellectual-property pro-tection, its brutal approach to human rights, its obsession with controlling the media, its mercantilist ex-change-rate policy or its coziness with pariah regimes such as Sudan's and Burma's. His proposal to enlarge the U.N. Security Council with Japan and India makes sense, but he stretches the argument too far with his notion that the U.N. General Assem-bly is a democratic global parliament that could manage many of the world's big problems.

但馬凱碩對西方過於冷嘲熱諷，卻未指責亞洲本身的失策。舉例來說，他讚揚中國在東亞開明的外交政策，卻略而未提中國長期漠視智慧財產權的保護、殘暴的人權作法、執意控制媒體、重商主義的外匯政策，或和蘇丹及緬甸等不受歡迎政府維持友好關係。他提議擴大聯合國安理會，納入日本和印度也言之成理，但他認為聯合國大會是個民主的全球性國會，可以處理世上諸多重大問題，則又引喻失義。

In the book, there are a few key issues that should be widely debated:

書中有些重大議題應廣泛辯論：

In an era of such rapid globalization, how meaningful is it to think in terms of East and West Mahbubani often conflates the United States and Europe, and implies that countries such as India, China and Japan see the world in similar terms. But surely trade, capital flows, technology trans-fers, immigration, environmental spillover and cultural transmission have blurred the sharp divide between two distinct halves of the world. A new way of thinking is required. Mahbubani is trying to promote such an approach through his enhanced vision of the United Nations, but in-volving fewer key countries in a non-U.N. forum might turn out to be more effective.

在如此快速全球化的時代，從東方和西方的觀點來思考意義多大？馬凱碩經常將美國和歐洲並列，並暗指印度、中國和日本等國也以類似觀點看世界。但貿易、資本流通、科技轉移、移民、環境副作用和文化傳播，的確已使世界涇渭分明的東西兩半界線模糊，需要一套新思維。馬凱碩試圖透過擴大聯合國功能來倡議這種作法，實則較少重要國家參加的非聯合國論壇可能效率更高。

Will market forces or policymakers be the major instrument of change Mahbubani gravitates toward govern-ment as the key force for fostering global integration. But the full partic-ipation of Asia in the global economic system is more likely to be driven by the market: millions of entrepreneurs creating new products and services that flow across borders; businesses that create global supply and distribu-tion chains; technological advances that tie everyone together in ways not yet imaginable. In light of these trends, Mahbubani could be underestimat-ing how fast east Asia is being fully integrated into the global economy.

市場力量或決策人士可以在帶動變革上起關鍵作用嗎？馬凱碩傾向以政府為主要力量來促成全球整合。但亞洲全面參與全球經濟體系比較可能由市場驅動：數以百萬計的企業家創造新產品和服務，可以跨越邊界流通；企業創造全球連鎖供銷網，科技進步以過去難以想像的方式把大家串連在一起。從這些趨勢看來，馬凱碩可能低估了東亞正以多快的速度和全球經濟整合。

How much are East-West relations determined by the policies of China and America While Mahbubani gives a lot of thought to both, he doesn't come to grips with how these two giants will transform the global system. Aside from domestic challenges, the United States struggles with massive current-account deficits and China with soaring surpluses, both of which have profound implications for global trade. One question is whether Washington and Beijing can cooper-ate.

東方和西方的關係有多大部分由中國和美國的政策決定？馬凱碩雖然對兩國都經過全面思考，但他並未努力處理這兩大強權將如何改變全球體制的問題。除了國內的挑戰，美國正在對抗大量現金帳赤字問題，中國則面臨順差飆升的問題。這兩大問題對全球貿易會產生長足的影響。問題癥結是華府和北京能否合作。

Can America still lead Mahbubani thinks American dominance is over and its power in decline. But suppose the U.S. assumes the role of primus inter pares, adopting new domestic and international policies to invigorate trade, and takes a more active ap-proach to climate change and to strengthening international institutions and alliances In this scenario, it is at least possible that the American-led game could continue for many years to come.

美國還能引領世界嗎？馬凱碩認為美國獨霸的時代已經過去，美國國力正在沒落。但假設美國扮演同輩中老大的角色，採取新的內政外交政策來振興經濟，並更積極處理氣候變化問題，及強化國際機構和結盟呢？在這種情形下，至少由美國領導的遊戲仍可能延續好幾年。

Clearly, the questions are complex and open-ended; "The New Asian Hemisphere" is a valuable starting point for thinking about them. Whether or not you agree with ev-erything Mahbubani says, he is mak-ing powerful arguments that will be at the center of global politics and eco-nomics well into this century.

顯然，問題經緯萬端，結論是開放的。《新亞洲半球》是思考這些問題珍貴的起跑點。不管你是否完全同意馬凱碩在書中所言，他提出強而有力的論點，那至少是這個世紀全球政治和經濟的核心議題。

（取材自新聞周刊）